Well I think the effect of the Trump China policy to date is to create a lot
of turbulence and a lot of unpredictability.
There's a lot of question about what is a negotiating tactic and what is actually
a long term strategic vision by the United States as to how it needs to interact with China.
So very difficult.
Well given that you've had a turn in the USTR,
what do you think of the negotiating stance so far from the United States?
Has it been effective?
Well I think the Trump administration deserves a lot of credit for having disrupted
the status quo, and they certainly have gotten China's attention
I think the difficult question
is whether the United States has a coherent strategic approach
to what it is that it wants from China and what is that it realistically can get.
Because even though the United States and China have a lot of interconnections
in their economy, frankly the economists tell us that the economies are not so interlinked.
that they can't tolerate these tariffs.
If you blocked every single product that currently comes from China to the United States
the effect on China's economy apparently is not more than about 3% points in terms
of its GDP. So this is not a systemic threat to China. And that means that
the United States needs to make its negotiations commensurately realistic.
And from the U.S. side then let's look at some of the impacts we've already seen,
more in the markets, but still some concerns here around transports.
We saw overnight Harley Davidson now having to tweak production,
the automakers report from Moody's saying that these steps could hurt automakers.
Do you think there is a risk here that the administration is going to harm
the very industries it is setting out to protect?
Well we're reading a lot in the press that the Republicans on Capitol Hill
are actually very concerned about this and you know this is the group
that theoretically would be aligned with Trump.
So I think your point is well taken and there's a lot of concern.
Also, China's potential to retaliate against any tariffs that the United States puts on
I think is very real.
I think Xi Jinping indicated today that if the United States slaps China
on the face that China will punch back. So I think we are looking at some significant
potential damage to the industries that are reliant on trade.
And you said yourself the U.S. has to be clear about what it wants
out of this current trade fight.
The message we're getting from the White House, whether it's Peter Navarro overnighter,
recent comments from President Trump himself, is that they want to protect technology.
They want to go after those IP transfers that have arguably been a problem for businesses for quite
some time, but is going after tariffs the way to do that?
Well that's the significant question.
So I think as a short term, attention getting,
"We must change the dynamic",
"China you need to understand
that we really are having difficulties with what you are doing with your
industrial policies and with the IP theft and with your closing your own market
and then potentially dumping excess production on global markets".
That "something really fundamental has to change there, because you,
China, are too big an economy and having too much of an impact on global markets
for the world to ignore that. So that basic point I think is very very valuable.
But the question is, since, after you get their attention, what is it that you
can do to change the underlying problems?
And I think that issue is really that tariffs in the long term
are going to disrupt global trade.
So, is there some short term opportunity for both sides to absorb the punches
in the nose and then perhaps get together for a more realistic assessment
of how you can make the global trading system work.
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