Legendary investor, Peter Lynch, has one of the best performance records in
history. He warns, "there is no use diversifying for the sake of diversity.
A foolish diversity is the hobgoblin of small investors."
[Green Goblin] You don't give people hope... you take it away... I'm gonna take away yours!
What this warning means for you, the dangers of over diversification, and the easy way
you can avoid them. Coming up...
Understanding the importance of diversification is a must for anyone
with money in the market. If you don't yet have a comfortable grasp on it or
would like to explore it more, I dedicated an entire lesson to the
subject in one of my courses at Spicer Capital University. But even if you don't
yet have a complete understanding, most people recognize diversification as
something they should do when investing. But then when you hear quotes, like this
one from Warren Buffett, you can't help but get a little confused. He says that
"diversification is protection against ignorance. It makes little sense if you
know what you're doing." Diversification is protection against ignorance... Almost
sounds like Buffett is calling you stupid if you diversify... I don't think
that's what he's saying. Remember, Buffett himself is diversified. The difference
between him and the way most people diversify is: he understands very well
each and every one of his holdings and—this is key—because he maintains that
standard of familiarity, although he's diversified, he holds relatively few
positions. I believe the diversification the Oracle
of Omaha is referencing is that same hobgoblin of small investors—that
diversification for diversification sake alone—of which Peter
Lynch warned. Seth Klarman, in his book Margin of Safety, sheds some light on the
issue. "An investor is better off knowing a lot about a few investments, than
knowing only a little about each of a great many holdings." That's the issue
with over-diversification: how many positions can you keep up with at that
Warren-Buffett-deep level of understanding. Maybe not that deep... but
you get the idea. The moment you can't keep up is the moment your
diversification loses its value. At that point, you might as well have saved your
time and just invested in a fund that tracks the market as a whole. So what do
we know? We should diversify. But not too much... How much is too much?
At what point should we feel comfortable with our portfolio? Early in my career, I
struggled with this for a long time. I like things to be logical. I didn't just
want some "expert" to throw out a number. I wanted a data-driven system I could
follow—a mathematically supported specific number to work towards. And that
magic number? It exists. you know. I was first introduced to it as I was
listening to Hedge Fund Market Wizards by Jack Schwager (a must-read, by the way,
for anyone who plans to seriously invest on their own). In his interview with
Schwager, Ray Dalio, manager of the largest hedge fund in the world, walks
over to his white board and draws a diagram where the horizontal axis
represents the number of investments and the vertical axis represents the
historical volatility of the portfolio. In his mathematical (and slightly
confusing) style, Dalio explains: "This is a chart that I teach people in the firm
which I call the holy grail of investing." He then draws a curve that slopes down
from left to right. That is, the greater the number of assets the lower the
historical volatility. He continues, "this chart shows how the volatility of the
portfolio changes as you add asset. By the time you diversify to only 15 assets
you can cut the volatility by 80%." At which point, Dalio eloquently
concludes, "and that's a magic number!" If Dalio's explanation left you confused
consider Joel Greenblatt's from You Can Be A Stock Market Genius.
Despite the bombastic title, this is my number one recommended book for anyone
who wants to seriously trade individual stocks.
Remember, Greenblatt's book is about stocks, so in this quote he's referring
to stocks specifically, but the same logic would apply to other markets or
even your overarching diversification (across stocks, bonds, and other asset
categories). He explains, "statistics say that owning just two stocks eliminates
46% of the nonmarket risk of owning just one stock. This type of risk is
supposedly reduced by 72% with a four-stock portfolio, 81% with
an eight-stock portfolio, 93% with 16 stocks, 96% with
32 stocks, and 99% with 500 stocks." Each additional stock has a smaller and
smaller impact on reducing your risk. With these numbers, clearly having an
intimate understanding of just four stocks would be way better than holding
a single stock or than trying to keep up with 50. With the one, even if you know it
like the back of your hand, things can happen that are out of your control.
This is always true that's the primary reason for diversification in the first place.
With the 50, how—even if you're doing this full-time—can you keep up with the
intimate understanding of the fundamentals guiding each of your
positions? ...you can't! So if you only have time to
identify four... great! That's better than the alternatives. If you can get it up to
eight... even better! The sweet spot, for me and my clients at least, is between 10
to 16. But remember, this is my passion and my full-time job. I can keep
up with 10-16 positions, while also looking for new positions that are
even better to replace those. You'll need to discover your exact capability and
comfort level. Just remember: don't diversify for diversity's sake alone!
Make sure you understand each and every position you hold. And if you're not
comfortable doing that research on your own but don't want to hire an expensive
advisor to do it all for you, then find someone you can trust to help. But of
course, if you watched our last video, then you know how to use that research
and the dangers of trusting that person without also gaining your own
understanding or having access to all the information. This is why I set up my
Patreon account. So that I would have a way to give you open access to all the
trades I make and why for myself and my clients. Now take your number.
Whether it's 16, 10, or 4 and put it to work for you in your portfolio. Or use
this to keep an eye on your advisors, to make sure they know what they're doing.
However you choose to use it, I hope it helps! And if you're new here: I hope
you'll join us on this journey to building your rapidly growing highly
diversified net worth, one video at a time. Just click subscribe and then the
notification bell and you'll be on your way! Thank you for watching.
Click the like button if this has helped you in some way. I can't wait to see you
in the next one. Take care!

Không có nhận xét nào:
Đăng nhận xét