Shalom and welcome to Jerusalem studio
Rhetoric from Washington and Moscow has intensified over the western response to us as alleged use of chemical
weapons with the most hostile warnings of possible direct confrontation between the two superpowers and
Dangers a regional conflict from possibly turning global to further discuss the tension between the United States and Russia over Syria
I'm John Chandler studio by dr.
Alan Lehman was the vice president of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies and a lecturer at Shalem College welcome
Michael so to welcome our tv7 analyst mr. Emil Olin and
Professor at Frank um who's a senior researcher at the Institute for national security studies and dr.
Neil bones who's a research fellow at the machete on Centre at Tel Aviv University welcome
Mr.. Owen, give us a broader understanding of the current situation
the United States at least in its national security and foreign policy
Structure
Not the political echelon views Russia as what it calls a near peer
adversary and
While the United States is supposed to be the only remaining superpowers
superpower
Russia because of what the Americans viewers its aggressive policy is now threatening its dominance
so this is
across a very broad front which includes cyber
meddling in elections the Ukraine
the Russian resistance to
missile defense in Europe but most
urgently over the last few weeks
It came to a head in Syria because the Russians have denied
That Bashar Assad their Protege has used chemical weapons against his own people because the Russians
have
taken Assad under their wing and
Resist the American intervention there and because the Russians are dense to stay while
President Trump has already announced that his intention is to bring the boys home dr. Lerman leading up to the attack
of the United States France and Britain
Russia has voiced various rhetoric with regard to the the possible
confrontation between the two
superpowers with the height of the event
pointing to any missile that would be fired would be shot down and even the the
Silos that the missiles are fired from would be targeted in a response something that didn't materialize
But this rhetoric was made to what degree is this?
Just rhetoric, or is there something beyond that well?
Russia
basically is by now a
Second-tier power let's let's be in in everything
But one aspect which is its military capabilities and its ongoing
Investment in advanced technology military technology it is behind in every other respect
Let's not forget. This is for us. You know which sit in Israel. We'll look at the bear. It's it's a big animal
it's a caged bear who is a nation ten times its population to itself and
Then Alliance 20 times their GDP to their West
So this is really the the I think the epitome of being passive aggressive
The basic situation a point of departure is defensive
fragile and
vindictive having basically lost
with the collapse of the Soviet Union
huge realms of
Russian control that have been built since the 16th century it came to the point in which they were almost looking at the
possibility of death of NATO spreading to the depe
And into the Caucasus in 2008 so it was touch-and-go
and and they reacted very aggressively with what they have so their ability to survive in a
Complicated world largely rests on their ability to stay ahead in the military sense in military technology
This is why they were very sensitive
To the post the prospect over the Americans
basically being free to do within Syrian territory as they wish when they
however at the end of the day no Russian in his right mind would actually risk firing at
an American
naval
Asset of trying to shoot down an American plane during such operations because this would bring
Long before it brings you to a minute to live
nuclear confrontation it would bring
Immense American capabilities upon their heads so this was
bravado and little more than that at the end of the phase all come I
Think that needless to say that the Russians don't like either gonna like an attack
Not is already attack
But having said that I want to suggest that it is a limited blow from the Russian viewpoint also from our viewpoint
It is limited one thing to the use of the Assad regime in
chemical chemical
Warfare capabilities, that's it. It is not affecting the stability of the Assad regime
It is not affecting the position of the Russians in in the Syrian territory
It is not affecting the relationship between Russia and Iran
Or in a solution, so they can use it big question is what will come next
And we don't know
We have to take into account that this is not the end of the story it can continue
Dr. Bombs history sometimes tends to repeat itself if you took the beginning of the Crimean War in 1853
You have a crisis over the Church of the Holy Sepulchre
Who are the ones playing that game? Which the Turks and it's the Russians, and then we're the ones who are coming afterwards
It's the British and the France the same players who now have been involved in the recent
Syria story if you're looking 30 years ago when we had the
The collapse of the Soviet Union we are beginning to speak about the unipolar world
There are books like dots of Huntington and that of Fukuyama speaking about the New World Order
And it actually lasted for quite some time partially because Russia
That inherited some of the Soviet Union has really weaker and even it had remained weak
But a few things have changed one of them in the American side is that particularly in the last?
decade under President Obama part of the
Mindset was that UNEP our world or not. You know we are redrawing
We are leading from behind or leaning
Somewhere else and there are many arenas that we don't really need to take the lead and on the other hand you have people
In the region and people in Russia like Putin or say you know we actually do and it's about time that we will reassert our
Identity and we are searched for we are so these
Two holes are beginning to create something different
Which began to emerge a little bit like?
another wave of another round of a Cold War and when it comes to allies when it comes to a
crisis points when it comes to
Alliances and old alliances like in the case of Syria all of a sudden
he says well look the Americans have abandoned and haven't had a track record of abandoning allies the Russians are saying you know what we're
Going to do it a little bit differently
This is perhaps the very broad sense of this dynamic, and then you need to start delving into the details
But one of the messages that came from Russia is we have allies we're going to stick with them and now the American
Under new leadership SAR saying wait a minute. We're not sure that we're
Continuing to lead from behind, and now you have a confrontation mr. Owen when we're talking about what dr.
bonds just mentioned about the vacuum that
occurred during the Trudeau Bhama administration and the course of
various actions that actually
permitted
the the Russian forces to enter and
To make new dealings with different countries and of course the the nuclear agreement with Iran did also permitted
Moscow to make dealings on different levels with Islamic Republic the Syria arena has become
somewhat of a platform of public relations to Middle Eastern countries for Moscow with
Regard to its vocal and adamant
Pursuit of showing that it stands by its allies and is capable of doing so to what degree
Does this actually affect the United States is positioned towards Moscow is it somewhat?
Applying causality where we see various actions by Moscow
predicting various effects by the Trump administration
I'd like to speak in defense of the Obama administration
One thing always leads to another and there is always
reaction to what your predecessor did and Obama came after Bush who went into the Middle East following 9/11
After Clinton tried to go out
Following bush senior going into Iraq and so on and so forth after Reagan having fled
Beirut
following the October 1983
bombing of the Marine Barracks and one can go back on and on
Now one of the differences between Putin and Trump is the Putin like many Russians is mindful of history
while
Trump is completely ignorant and couldn't care less
Putin wants to revert to the heyday of the Russian Empire under various guises and
He totally rejects the policy of Mikhail Gorbachev
Which brought about in Putin's opinion the demise of the Soviet empire?
So Putin is proactive and as Aaron said
vindictive aggressive
expansive
Trump on the other hand brings to mind the
famous line by Sarah Palin who said that from her window in Alaska she can see Russia
Across the Bering Strait which is a bit?
Too minimal work. Ya know. It's it's five to ten miles
She can't really see that that far, but it is true that the only place where Russia almost porters the United States is
Next to Alaska and for president Trump wants America first bring America home
He wants to remain between the world
On the Mexican border which is yet to build and the Canadian border which is fine?
It's his kind of people and the two oceans he doesn't want to be involved in Syria he
To get out the sooner the better and has said mission accomplished. I am the president
I will decide what is the mission and when it is over and I'm now saying that we won as
Senator Aiken of Vermont said let's say we want and get nevertheless when we hear French president American dr.
Elman saying that they managed to convince President Trump to remain
In Syria to at least leave a certain presence in Syria that would tear both, Russians as well as other
regional powers from taking
Actions that would be counterproductive to the stability of the region to what degree is that actually going?
on forward well
It depends on how you read would trump sit because I agree that he has his basic instinct is bring the boys home
But if you you look at the actually three or four sentences strung together
What you will say is we need others to pitch in the purpose is the same purpose?
But we need others to come in so in other words. He's being as usual very transactional
He wants more Saudi money more allied more Arab and more international
Inputs so that
burden of sustaining the SDF and the that
Quarter of Syria that is held against Iran's wishes and the burden of doing so should be
Spread more evenly not just on American shoulders. This goes back to the fighting in which for the first time America
I think one of the few cases I remember in which Americans actually killed Russians
That hug I think there were a few cases in which Russians killed Americans
Over flights you too. Etc, but
Even in Cuba the Americans never actually killed Russia, but is a mercenaries not
An Ares that work for somebody personally very close to put it
so they could not possibly be there without his blessing and
So the events of that at the Battle of the bridges in the Arizona in February are very telling
I think he wants to bring the boys home
Only says when and if I can do so once the French and the Saudis
And the UAE and others who want to block the Iranian presence in eastern Syria have pitched in to be of help
Nevertheless we here also compel during his hearing
Boasting about the American capabilities and the ability to kill about 200 Russians on Syrian soil some
appointment that some say has
Provided President Trump with no alternative, but to remain in the region. It's not just Pompeo
john, bolton is I think focused like a laser beam beam on the
Iranian issue
His appointment is a very strong indication the laser beams from North Korea to South Korea - but North Korea
Is going to be many is?
Already at the negotiating table under very heavy leverage
On Iran you need to create that leverage you cannot create that leverage while running away from confrontation with Iran
On the post may 12 situation, that's about to emerge so everything should be read
running into and
Indicating where we are coming on the tours. I called it recently a problem
You should look at what happened in Syria under sevens as a promo for me of a so calm
I've said before that this is not the end of the story one of the reasons. They said that is that
two of the major players now in Syria
Russia and Iran have no intention to pull out the forces foreign from Syria Russia are limited in its presence in Syria
Pulled out some of the forces, but at the same time it concluded agreement with Syrians to use two
military bases in Syria an alien base and naval base for
4849 news which means are going to stay there very long a period of time
The worst case has to do is with with Iran Iran is not going to withdraw from Syria
The reason is of course Israel is below its attempt to increase its influence
both in Syria and among the neighbors of Syria in Iraq in Lebanon and
The meaning is that Iran will continue to be calls for frictions and and
I would say
All Swiss Israel for long period of time to what degree does that?
impact the relations between the United States and Russia if at all dr. Bones
Well it certainly brings a new level of tension between the two countries
Particularly when it appears it's very close
Very close proximity they are almost fighting each other or at least fighting each other's mercenaries or at least fighting their
Proxies are supporting the jaxxed opposing proxies, and this is what's have been happening the other piece is that?
if you again if you zoom out, and we're looking at all sorts of other issues from
the
Election story where Russia is involved where President Trump is
inflated with a number of
Personnel they mentioned it has to do with business dealings and with political dealings where Russia has
something to do with
Just to remind our viewers that the Americans and the Russians have actually been supposedly somewhat
coordinated on a whole series of agreements
including agreements regarding the south part of Syria including agreement regarding the
entire
trajectory of how to resolve the Syrian conflict and of course part of it was also reports about the
Americans actually heading to
Russian requests and stopping a number of American programs in a way to leave the Russians that the additional maneuver
maneuvering ability within
Syria so that the Americans can say look we're gonna bring our boys home because the Russians are doing some of the work for us
And all of a sudden it is
Reversing you get yes again, and if you're looking just at the last two weeks
President Trump has been very consistent in its inconsistency regarding
The statements about we're coming in or coming out we're gonna take the soldiers
We're going to be going to respond, but perhaps not now perhaps later. We'd ever said. Where are we going to do it?
We're going to bring our boys home
But we're going to only bring them afterwards when you're gonna have somebody else taking their place so all of that
perhaps there creates a certain
what's here we sometimes call constructive ambiguity if somebody at least 6 to find some order and
But perhaps there is a a method and perhaps part of the order is that this tension?
Is an attempt of maneuvering but on the one hand they realized that they're really conflicted interests here
But on the other hand you don't want to start a real round not of a cold war about of a warm one well
Mr.. Owen, I'd like to touch base on Turkey, which has
slowly slowly
distanced itself from NATO
And its allies within NATO and and warmed up with
Regard to its relations with Moscow, but then again the worst certain
situations following the Astana talks where Iran Russia and Turkey had various agreements some
Agreements that weren't met on the side of the Russians and Iranians
in the perception of the the leadership in Ankara which led again to
Different comments relating to their warming of ties against with the United States supporting the action against President Bashar Assad
supporting
Various actions with regard to the maneuvering of military troops and also
vocally in various
support for the the NATO alliance
Considering the fact that the leader of NATO or the the commander of NATO visited oncologist recently to what degree is
this
somewhat of an illustration of
Regional powers on the one hand trying to show that they want to diversify in the direction of Moscow
But when the time comes to the bottom line
Washington has no alternative
Washington may have no alternative but
Ankara does and this is perhaps the major development outside of what has happened
Within Syria itself what you just described is
a major development in
What has happened in the American Russian relationship because Turkey has been a stalwart member of NATO?
From the beginning it had
The second largest armed force it helped the United States in in Korea
during the war in many other respects of course out of
What it perceived to be its self-interest because it was threatened by Russia what?
near earlier talked about the Crimean War
the
traditional
Alliance was between Turkey and Germany
Against
Russia and Serbia Germany
Also is karate and other other places and only after World War two when the Americans?
Gradually took over from Great Britain the leadership in the Middle East the Americans only entered the Middle East first by the way
Into Turkey the the pretext was the death of the Turkish ambassador to Washington a goon
Whose body was carried to Turkey aboard the u.s. A u.s.
Battleship and this was the beginning of the 6th fleet
obviously
President Trump knows all of this. I'm just repeating it
but
apparently
President, Erdogan
Has now concluded that he is not going to be accepted into the European Union
That he is not going to get from NATO what he wants he has bought the Americans from using in Cilic
airbase in this latest attack
on the Syrian chemical
Installations he is now in the Russian orbit
And this this is due to one simple fact Syria is as symmetrically
Between Russia and the United States Trump couldn't care less about Syria for Putin. It is a very big deal
this is topic that we will have to come back and revisit in the future dr. Lemon when
We're talking about Israel in the midst of all those different developments in this region and its
Relations both with Moscow and Washington obviously the alliance with the United States has no alternative for Israel
But it is playing a key
component within all those different developments to what degree does Israel have
The ability to maneuver and tread carefully in the situation considering well clearly if we ever
forced to choose
There's no question, but it has been a consistent policy of Israel, and I think wisely so
in the last decade to keep channels open to the Russians to map out the
areas of
common interest to
Explain to the Russians again and again and sometimes was very blunt and even violent messages of action on the ground that
Russian the Russian interest in asset survival would be put at risk if Assad goes with the Iranians
Into what we consider to be dangerous adventures what makes this dialogue with Russia
possible what keeps the door open is not only at the strategic and the
cold-blooded
Conversation about interests, but also a certain
sentimental element
Let's remind ourselves that Israel is the only country in the last
15 years to dedicate a monument to the Red Army in the tanya will in the presence of President
Putin who came specially for the event
Let's let it put me put it otherwise and against the background of our current crisis was Poland we
Still among the few who can appreciate that Ribbentrop was worse than Molotov mm-hmm
The Russians know that we have certain sentimental
commonalities
And not to mention that they look upon Israel as a country which is in their mind roughly 20 percent
Made of sons of the homeland not of anything from Russia many came from the Ukraine
but there are Russian speakers and their Russian and
the Russians considered them to be
to some extent a bridge including a defense minister in 2008 defence minister whose most Davian but speaks excellent Russian and
And communicates with the Russians and these channels of communication absolutely vital this is why Israel for example
Has dodged the bullet on Salisbury we we need our channels to Russia
Open at this time professor come I think Israel is not concerned so much about the Russian behavior in Syria
because
So does see some does
Identify some even advantages in the Russian presence in Syria is that as one problem in sir which is Iran
and
Israel's aim is to limit as much as possible the Iranian activities in Syria and remove the
Iranians outside of Syria which is possible it's not it's not easy to I
Would emphasize when what emphasize one point? I think in this game in the same territory?
Israel does direct advantage over the gun because Israel is one one
Capability who ask abilities and capabilities to give me the alien presence and activities in?
In Syria Iran doesn't have such capabilities is it can attack Iranian forces you didn't
Capabilities and cannot respond in a way. We should see what Iran is going to do now after the Union is ready attack Iranian
Sites, but I don't think it could do too much
And I think all in all taking the two players
Israel and Iran, I think they great advantage to the on the side of his life
So and I think he does not know that very very well and trying to the game
among these
Limitations we have to see how long they can continue it doctor bombs the
Israeli in this Russian interests have a number of things in common
Part some of them has to do with Iran. There is note an ideological divide. This is not
This is far different than the Cold War and where you have an also an ideological camp when it comes to
Syria the Israel I think is overall even fairly comfortable
and that's something that actually became perhaps even more acute with the Israeli Russian relationship following the Obama period when they realize if Americans are
Not here well somebody needs to be here and Israel obviously cannot do it alone
So if Russia wants to take over some and become stronger and and take over some of the oil and gas deals that
potentially is
acceptable
When it comes to Iran Israel also realized this is that the Russian does not want to see you run take over partially because really
They want to be the game here because he would not like to see around the game makers
But were there frictions there are frictions because when it comes with a tactical
Dimension well first of all the Iranians were the ones who did the dirty work the Iranians are the ones who did it there to?
Work on the ground Russians had taken 24 airplanes and had attempted to provide the umbrella
And in some of the support, and they entered fairly late, and if taking a much bigger part of the pot
But the Iranians are the ones who did this and the Russian understand is also the Russians would like to make sure that they keep
their influence with everyone including of the Iranians and
Here is where you have the frictions when the Russians are saying look. We are going to do this for you
Let us do it that Israel is saying with all the respect you're catering to Russian interests. We have our own
We're drawing near to the end of the program, and I have one more question actually to dr. Elman with regard to
the point that you made earlier about
American demands of sharing the burden among other
Regional powers is Israel also one of those countries that the United States sees as should
Take part in sharing the burden, or is it exempt
Indirectly yes insofar as we are as you as fine
And others have said here we keep the Iranians in check
But what they are looking at is for the Saudis in particular?
to look beyond their current engagement in Yemen if they want a
Regional balance against Iran they should do more than they are doing now in terms of money and resource well
This is all the time that we're for today, so I'd like to think that the Lealman mr.. Olin professor come in dr.
Bones for coming here today and like to think of yours as well, and we'll see you next time
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